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Q4 2022 Western Washington Economic & Real Estate Update
The following analysis of select counties of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. I hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.
Regional Economic Overview
Although the job market in Western Washington continues to grow, the pace has started to slow. The region added over 91,000 new jobs during the past year, but the 12-month growth rate is now below 100,000, a level we have not seen since the start of the post-COVID job recovery. That said, all but three counties have recovered completely from their pandemic job losses and total regional employment is up more than 52,000 jobs. The regional unemployment rate in November was 3.8%, which was marginally above the 3.7% level of a year ago. Many business owners across the country are pondering whether we are likely to enter a recession this year. As a result, it’s very possible that they will start to slow their expansion in anticipation of an economic contraction.
Western Washington Home Sales
❱ In the final quarter of 2022, 12,711 homes sold, representing a drop of 42% from the same period in 2021. Sales were 34.7% lower than in the third quarter of 2022.
❱ Listing activity rose in every market year over year but fell more than 26% compared to the third quarter, which is expected given the time of year.
❱ Home sales fell across the board relative to the fourth quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022.
❱ Pending sales (demand) outpaced listings (supply) by a factor of 1:2. This was down from 1:6 in the third quarter. That ratio has been trending lower for the past year, which suggests that buyers are being more cautious and may be waiting for mortgage rates to drop.
Western Washington Home Prices
❱ Sale prices fell an average of 2% compared to the same period the year prior and were 6.1% lower than in the third quarter of 2022. The average sale price was $702,653.
❱ The median listing price in the fourth quarter of 2022 was 5% lower than in the third quarter. Only Skagit County experienced higher asking prices. Clearly, sellers are starting to be more realistic about the shift in the market.
❱ Even though the region saw aggregate prices fall, prices rose in six counties year over year.
❱ Much will be said about the drop in prices, but I am not overly concerned. Like most of the country, the Western Washington market went through a period of artificially low borrowing costs, which caused home values to soar. But now prices are trending back to more normalized levels, which I believe is a good thing.
Mortgage Rates
Rates rose dramatically in 2022, but I believe that they have now peaked. Mortgage rates are primarily based on the prices and yields of bonds, and while bonds take cues from several places, they are always impacted by inflation and the economy at large. If inflation continues to fall, as I expect it will, rates will continue to drop.
My current forecast is that mortgage rates will trend lower as we move through the year. While this may be good news for home buyers, rates will still be higher than they have become accustomed to. Even as the cost of borrowing falls, home prices in expensive markets such as Western Washington will probably fall a bit more to compensate for rates that will likely hold above 6% until early summer.
Western Washington Days on Market
❱ It took an average of 41 days for homes to sell in the fourth quarter of 2022. This was 17 more days than in the same quarter of 2021, and 16 days more than in the third quarter of 2022.
❱ King County was again the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 31 days to find a buyer.
❱ All counties contained in this report saw the average time on market rise from the same period a year ago.
❱ Year over year, the greatest increase in market time was Snohomish County, where it took an average of 23 more days to find a buyer. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, San Juan County saw average market time rise the most (from 34 to 74 days).
Conclusions
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
The regional economy is still growing, but it is showing signs of slowing. Although this is not an immediate concern, if employees start to worry about job security, they may decide to wait before making the decision to buy or sell a home. As we move through the spring I believe the market will be fairly soft, but I would caution buyers who think conditions are completely shifting in their direction. Due to the large number of homeowners who have a mortgage at 3% or lower, I simply don’t believe the market will become oversupplied with inventory, which will keep home values from dropping too significantly.
Ultimately, however, the market will benefit buyers more than sellers, at least for the time being. As such, I have moved the needle as close to the balance line as we have seen in a very long time.
About Matthew Gardner
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
This article originally appeared on the Windermere blog January 26th, 2023. Written by: Matthew Gardner.
© Copyright 2023, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island.
What is an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM)?
Securing the most advantageous financing for your situation is an integral part of the success formula of buying a home. After getting pre-approved but once you’ve found the home you’d like to pursue, one of your primary tasks is exploring different loan products to see which best fits your situation. This is the fork in the road where you’ll need to decide between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM). The following information will help you gain a better understanding of ARMs to help you decide whether they’re right for you.
What Is an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM)?
After your down payment, your mortgage will finance the remainder of your home purchase. Whereas fixed-rate mortgages allow you to lock in a specific interest rate and payment for the life of your loan, adjustable-rate mortgages’ interest rates will fluctuate over time, thus changing your loan payment. It’s typical for ARMs to begin with a low introductory interest rate, but once that first stage of the loan has passed, they will begin to shift up and down. ARMs generally have a cap that specifies the maximum rate that can occur for that loan.
Let’s say you secure an adjustable-rate mortgage with 30-year terms, the first five of which are at a fixed rate. When the variable interest portion of the loan kicks in, your mortgage’s fluctuations will be measured against an index. If the index is higher than when you secured the loan, your rate and loan payment will go up—and vice versa. How often your ARM rates change depends on your agreement with your lender. Talk to your mortgage broker to learn more about the characteristics of adjustable-rate mortgages.
Pros and Cons of an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM)
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Different Types of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs)
Hybrid ARM: As outlined above, a hybrid ARM begins with a fixed-rate introductory period followed by an adjustable-rate period. Typically, a hybrid ARM’s fixed-rate period lasts anywhere between three to 10 years, and its rates adjust at an agreed-upon frequency during the adjustable-rate period, such as once every six months or once a year.
Interest-Only ARM: With an interest-only ARM, you pay just the interest on the loan for a specified introductory period, then the principal payments kick in on top. The longer the introductory period, the higher your payments will be when the delayed principal payments enter the equation.
Payment-Option ARM: Not all states allow these loan products because they can get home buyers into hot water quickly if rates increase. They include flexibility to choose your monthly payments with a payment-option ARM, including interest-only payments and minimum payments that don’t cover interest.
Home Monthly Payment Calculator
To get an idea of how your mortgage payment will fit into your budget, use our free Home Monthly Payment Calculator by clicking the button below. With current rates based on national averages and customizable mortgage terms, you can experiment with different values to get an estimate of your monthly payment for any listing price.
Adapted from an article that originally appeared on the Windermere blog September 28, 2022. Written by: Sandy Dodge.
© Copyright 2022, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island.
Your Fall Home Maintenance Checklist
A clever person solves a problem;
a wise person avoids it.
As the days shorten, you can mitigate many mid-winter headaches with some preemptive prep. Proper weatherizing can help protect your home from preventable damage, save money on energy costs, and, most importantly, keep you and your loved ones safe and warm throughout the winter season. Here is a useful checklist to manage your weatherization project. Setting aside some time on a couple of weekend days should be more than enough to knock this out. Scroll down for helpful tips and click here for a printable checklist!
1. Clean the Gutters
After all the leaves, pine cones, pine needles, and other autumnal debris have fallen, clear them out from your rain gutters. This will avoid gutter damage from ice or melted snow draining improperly. Even in warmer locales, gutter buildup & leakage can put undue stress on your roof and home. Make sure your downspouts are pointing away from your home’s foundation to prevent basement leaks and flooding.
2. Look at the Roof
Check for any damaged shingles, corroded flashing, or leaky vents that need to be repaired. When the first heavy rain comes after a long dry spell, check the underside of the roof for moisture on joints or insulation. Mark any spots that you find and then hire a roofing specialist to repair these leaks. If you wait until spots show up on your ceiling, insulation and sheet rock will have also been damaged and you could have a mold problem too. You can find tips on how to solve roof & gutter issues in this great article from http://FamilyHandyman.com.
3. Check the Siding
While the weather is still nice, look for any gaps or cracks and seal them with exterior caulk (here are some tips). You should also touch up any old or loose paint to ensure your home’s exterior has a weatherproof seal.
4. Trim Tree Limbs
If your property has large trees, check for loose branches and call someone to trim back any limbs that may fall in your yard, on your roof or even damage a window. Branches that touch your house and overhang your roof are convenient on-ramps for pests, so trim back branches so they’re at least four feet from the house.
5. Reverse Ceiling Fans
If you have ceilings fans in your home, there is a handy trick you can use to improve your home’s heating efficiency. By reversing the direction of your ceiling fan—running the blades in a clockwise direction—you’ll create a slight updraft, forcing warm air near the ceiling downward.
6. Weatherize Doors
If an exterior door doesn’t have a snug seal when closed, replace the weather stripping; self-adhesive foam stripping is much simpler to install than traditional vinyl stripping but has a shorter lifespan. If there is a gap under the door (which can happen over time as a house settles), you may need to realign the door and replace the vinyl door bottom and/or door sweep.
7. Service the Furnace
Preventative maintenance is crucial for your home’s heating and air-conditioning systems. Fall is a smart time to have your systems checked and tuned up. Don’t wait for extreme temperatures to arrive, when service companies are slammed with emergency calls. Replace filters if you use a furnace and clear out any vents and ducts that carry heat through them. If you have baseboard heaters, wipe them of dust and remove any debris that might catch fire.
8. Check the Chimney
Make sure to have chimneys and air vents inspected and cleaned early in the season if you are planning on warming your home with a wood-burning source. When your fireplace is not in use, make sure to close the damper—some resources estimate an open damper can increase energy consumption by as much as 30%, increasing your bill about $200.
9. Test Safety Devices
Most house fires happen in the fall and winter, with holiday cooking and heating systems both being common causes. Deadly carbon monoxide can also be released by furnaces, stoves, fireplaces, and space heaters. Protect your household by replacing any smoke detectors and carbon monoxide monitors as needed. Check the indicators on your fire extinguishers to make sure they’re still good (or install them if you don’t have them—a Class B extinguisher for the kitchen is a good place to start, but you might need more according to this guide).
10. Winterize Plumbing
Make sure any pipes in unheated spaces—such as the crawl space, basement, or garage—are properly insulated to prevent freezing and bursts. Disconnect hoses and install hose bib covers on all outdoor faucets. Winterize your in-ground sprinkler system…here’s a great wikiHow article with 3 different methods.
We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.
2737 77th Ave SE, Mercer Island, WA 98040 | (206) 232-0446
mercerisland@windermere.com
© Copyright 2022 Windermere Mercer Island.
Adapted from articles that originally appeared on the Windermere blog December 21, 2020, by Sandy Dodge; October 7th, 2019 by Meaghan McGlynn; and September 16, 2016 by Windermere Staff.
How to Avoid Overpaying for a Home in a Transitioning Market
Look Carefully at the Home Itself
Here are four home attributes beyond the number of bedrooms and baths that you should have your eye on…
Home (building) quality: Very well-built homes are a rare find and typically worth every penny of their price. Don’t confuse them with so-so homes that just measure up to the city inspector’s threshold. Lesser quality homes will cost you more in upkeep and replacement as systems and components wear out. If you purchase a lesser quality home for less, the differential might just cover the added maintenance expense. But, if you purchase a fair quality home at the going rate of higher quality homes, you might likely be overpaying.
Deferred maintenance: Different than home quality, deferred maintenance includes the to-do list of items that need to be done to maintain a home’s integrity. A home that has been well maintained over its life typically is a better investment than one that hasn’t. The true cost of deferred maintenance often adds up to more than the cost of the repairs themselves. Don’t forget to factor in the reduced life span of other components—like replacement of damaged wood beneath peeling paint or mold remediation in a damp basement caused by a clogged foundation drain.
Setting: The saying “location, location, location” didn’t get its fame from out of nowhere. A home with an ideal setting on its lot and in the neighborhood—away from busy roads and utility poles/boxes, with adequate privacy, good topography, best positioned to capture views if available, and not adjacent to undesirable elements (poorly maintained homes, water towers or other unsightly public structures, high traffic facilities, etc.) will have more value than a less-ideally sited home. When deciding what to pay for a property it is critical that you evaluate these aspects and any others relevant to a specific neighborhood to determine the +/- effect on value.
Floor plan: How a home lives—flow from room to room, size of rooms, open/closed-off spaces, and below ground vs. above ground living are every bit as important as the total home square footage. You can change a lot of things about a home, but it is very difficult to change a bad floor plan. When you are deciding how high to make that multiple offer bid, consider factoring in the added value or take-away of the floor plan.
Beyond the Four Walls
Interest Rates: In addition to being more selective about the home itself, it pays off to understand how interest rates impact your monthly housing cost. It’s a bigger deal than you might think. Every 1% increase in interest rate equates to roughly a 10% decrease in buying power. Said differently, a 10% drop in home sale price would be wiped out by a subtle 1% increase in mortgage interest rate. This means you can obtain a much more expensive home when rates are low, whereas higher rates get you less home—even though you still pay the same monthly payment.
If you have $5,000 a month to budget for a house payment (before taxes and insurance), you could purchase a $931,000 house at a 5% mortgage rate. If rates went up to 6%, the same monthly payment would only get you an $834,000 home. Your buying power diminishes considerably with each bump up in rates.
This second chart below shows how interest rates impact monthly payments. If you’re purchasing a $950,000 house at a 5% interest rate, you’ll be paying $596 less every month than if rates were 6%. That adds up quick…$7,152 in one year alone!
Job and Location Stability: Like nearly any investment vehicle, being able to buy and sell on your own time allows you take advantage of ideal market conditions or hold until a more favorable market returns. In an uncertain market, you should plan to be able to stay put for a minimum of 5-7 years if needed. If relocation or job loss is a distinct possibility, waiting to buy might avoid loss as a result of an untimely sale.
Homeownership Lifestyle: For many, homeownership represents a life accomplishment, independence, and financial security. For others, one more thing requiring maintenance and upkeep. Knowing where you stand (at this moment in time anyway) when it comes to evaluating the pros and cons of homeownership as a lifestyle choice is a better first step than an afterthought.
Final Thoughts
Want to know how you can best protect yourself in a changing real estate market? Reach out to us for help evaluating whether it would make financial sense to buy now or wait.
We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.
2737 77th Ave SE, Mercer Island, WA 98040 | (206) 232-0446
mercerisland@windermere.com
© Copyright 2022, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island.
