Real Estate February 1, 2023

Q4 2022 Western Washington Economic & Real Estate Update

The following analysis of select counties of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. I hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

 

Regional Economic Overview

Although the job market in Western Washington continues to grow, the pace has started to slow. The region added over 91,000 new jobs during the past year, but the 12-month growth rate is now below 100,000, a level we have not seen since the start of the post-COVID job recovery. That said, all but three counties have recovered completely from their pandemic job losses and total regional employment is up more than 52,000 jobs. The regional unemployment rate in November was 3.8%, which was marginally above the 3.7% level of a year ago. Many business owners across the country are pondering whether we are likely to enter a recession this year. As a result, it’s very possible that they will start to slow their expansion in anticipation of an economic contraction.

Western Washington Home Sales

In the final quarter of 2022, 12,711 homes sold, representing a drop of 42% from the same period in 2021. Sales were 34.7% lower than in the third quarter of 2022.

Listing activity rose in every market year over year but fell more than 26% compared to the third quarter, which is expected given the time of year.

Home sales fell across the board relative to the fourth quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022.

Pending sales (demand) outpaced listings (supply) by a factor of 1:2. This was down from 1:6 in the third quarter. That ratio has been trending lower for the past year, which suggests that buyers are being more cautious and may be waiting for mortgage rates to drop.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Western Washington from Q4 2021 to Q4 2022. All counties have a negative percentage year-over-year change. Here are the totals: Jefferson at -19.9%, Skagit at -27.7%, Mason -30.7%, Lewis -30.9%, Clallam -34.3%, Whatcom -36.3%, Kitsap -38.5%, Snohomish -40.3%, Island -42%, Grays Harbor -42.3%, King -43.1%, Thurston -45.8%, San Juan -46.8%, Pierce -46.9%.

Western Washington Home Prices

Sale prices fell an average of 2% compared to the same period the year prior and were 6.1% lower than in the third quarter of 2022. The average sale price was $702,653.

The median listing price in the fourth quarter of 2022 was 5% lower than in the third quarter. Only Skagit County experienced higher asking prices. Clearly, sellers are starting to be more realistic about the shift in the market.

Even though the region saw aggregate prices fall, prices rose in six counties year over year.

Much will be said about the drop in prices, but I am not overly concerned. Like most of the country, the Western Washington market went through a period of artificially low borrowing costs, which caused home values to soar. But now prices are trending back to more normalized levels, which I believe is a good thing.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Western Washington. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. Grays Harbor and Whatcom Counties have a percentage change in the -6.5% to -3.6%+ range, Clallam, Jefferson, King, and Skagit counties are in the -3.5% to -0.6% change range, Snohomish and Pierce are in the -0.5% to 2.4% change range, Mason, Thurston, Island, and Lewis counties are in the 2.5% to 5.4% change range, and San Juan County is in the 5.5%+ change range.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Western Washington from Q4 2021 to Q4 2022. San Juan County tops the list at 6.9%, followed by Lewis at 4.8%, Thurston at 3.8%, Island at 3.7%, Mason at 3.5%, Snohomish at 0.8%, Pierce at -0.2%, Clallam at -1%, Skagit at -2.1%, Jefferson at -2.5%, King at -3.1%, Whatcom at -4.1%, Kitsap at -5.3%, and finally Grays Harbor at -6.5%.

Mortgage Rates

Rates rose dramatically in 2022, but I believe that they have now peaked. Mortgage rates are primarily based on the prices and yields of bonds, and while bonds take cues from several places, they are always impacted by inflation and the economy at large. If inflation continues to fall, as I expect it will, rates will continue to drop.

My current forecast is that mortgage rates will trend lower as we move through the year. While this may be good news for home buyers, rates will still be higher than they have become accustomed to. Even as the cost of borrowing falls, home prices in expensive markets such as Western Washington will probably fall a bit more to compensate for rates that will likely hold above 6% until early summer.

A bar graph showing the mortgage rates from Q4 2020 to the present, as well as Matthew Gardner's forecasted mortgage rates through Q4 2023. After the 6.79% figure in Q4 2022, he forecasts mortgage rates dipping to 6.27% in Q1 2023, 6.09% in Q2 2023, 5.76% in Q3 2023, and 5.42% in Q4 2023.

Western Washington Days on Market

It took an average of 41 days for homes to sell in the fourth quarter of 2022. This was 17 more days than in the same quarter of 2021, and 16 days more than in the third quarter of 2022.

King County was again the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 31 days to find a buyer.

All counties contained in this report saw the average time on market rise from the same period a year ago.

Year over year, the greatest increase in market time was Snohomish County, where it took an average of 23 more days to find a buyer. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, San Juan County saw average market time rise the most (from 34 to 74 days).

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Western Washington for Q4 2022. King County has the lowest DOM at 31, followed by Kitsap at 45, Island and Snohomish at 35, Whatcom, Thurston, and Skagit at 36, Pierce at 37, Clallam at 38, Jefferson at 40, Mason at 43, Grays Harbor at 46, Lewis at 49, and San Juan at 74.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The regional economy is still growing, but it is showing signs of slowing. Although this is not an immediate concern, if employees start to worry about job security, they may decide to wait before making the decision to buy or sell a home. As we move through the spring I believe the market will be fairly soft, but I would caution buyers who think conditions are completely shifting in their direction. Due to the large number of homeowners who have a mortgage at 3% or lower, I simply don’t believe the market will become oversupplied with inventory, which will keep home values from dropping too significantly.

A speedometer graph indicating a balanced market, barely leaning toward a seller's market in Western Washington in Q4 2022.

Ultimately, however, the market will benefit buyers more than sellers, at least for the time being. As such, I have moved the needle as close to the balance line as we have seen in a very long time.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

 


This article originally appeared on the Windermere blog January 26th, 2023. Written by: Matthew Gardner.

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© Copyright 2023, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island.

 

Community September 27, 2022

Favorite Local Pumpkin Patches

Grab your boots, pack a thermos…it’s time to choose those perfect Halloween pumpkins! This year, why not explore a new town and make your pumpkin patch experience a true adventure? All of these farms are open every weekend in October, and most are open on weekdays too. Some even welcome your furry family members on a leash. Scroll down for the full scoop!

Eastside  |  North of Seattle  |  South of Seattle


 

Eastside

 

Fletcher Farm
Dog-friendly with a scavenger hunt, farm animal zoo, storybook trail, mini-golf, photo stations, and junior corn maze for the little ones. End of season Halloween Bash, too!

18712 SE May Valley Road | Issaquah
fletcherfarmevents@gmail.com
fletcherfarmissaquah.com

 

Jubilee Farm
Hay rides, food trucks, music, hay maze, & hot apple cider.

229 W Snoqualmie River Rd NE | Carnation
(425) 222-4558
jubileefarm.org

 

Novelty Hill Farm
Dog-friendly! Corn maze, farm animals, trike track, & games.

26617 NE 124th Street | Duvall
(425) 788-2416
noveltyhillfarm.com

 

Oxbow Farm & Conservation Center
Live music, scavenger hunt, hay rides, mini pumpkin decoration, climbing tractor, conservation tours, & apple slingshot.

10819 Carnation-Duvall Rd. NE | Carnation
(425) 788-1134
oxbow.org/oxtober

 

Remlinger Farms
25 rides & attractions for children (including a train, carousel, & mini roller-coaster!), pony rides, apple cannon, restaurant, & new brewery with 20 choices on tap.

32610 NE 32nd Street | Carnation, WA
(425) 451-8740
remlingerfarms.com

 

Serres Farm
Mini train rides, corn maze and a dazzling variety of specialty pumpkins.

20306 NE 50th St | Redmond, WA
(425) 868-3017
serresfarm.com/pumpkin-patch

 

Two Brothers Pumpkins at Game Haven Farm
Baby calves and an eerie number of well-attired scarecrows.

7110 310th Avenue NE | Carnation, WA
(425) 333-4313
facebook.com/twobrotherspumpkins

 


North of Seattle

 

Bailey Vegetables
Kettle corn, cider, U-pick apples, baked goods, and kids play area with hay run, farm trikes & sandbox.

12691 Springhetti Rd | Snohomish
(360) 568-8826
baileyveg.com/pumpkin-patch

 

Bob’s Corn & Pumpkin Farm
12-acre corn maze, 2 kids’ mazes, play barn, hay rides, trike track, & apple cannon. Fire pit rentals for private groups, too!

10917 Elliott Road | Snohomish
(360) 668-2506
bobscorn.com/pumpkins

 

Carleton Farm
5-acre corn maze, playground, paintball gallery, apple guns, hay rides, & kids’ bucket train.

630 Sunnyside Blvd SE | Lake Stevens, WA
(425) 343-4963
carletonfarm.com/fall-fun

 

Craven Farm
15-acre corn maze, kids maze, farm animals, mini golf, cow train, foosball, espresso, cider donuts, & scarecrow making. Fire pit rentals and special dog-friendly days, too!

13817 Short School Road | Snohomish
(360) 568-2601
cravenfarm.com/fall-festival

 

Fairbank Animal & Pumpkin Farm
Lots of baby animals, “corn maize maze,” hay tunnel, toy duck races, photo boards, & veggie garden.

15308 52nd Ave W | Edmonds
(425) 743-3694
fairbankfarm.com

 

Stocker Farms
30+ attractions including a giant jumping pillow, tire mountain, epic play area, zip line, corn maze, pumpkin cannon, & more. The farm’s evil twin, Stalker Farms, comes out at night.

8705 Marsh Rd | Snohomish
(360) 568-7391
stockerfarms.com

 

Swans Trail Farms
Washington State corn maze, kids corn maze, petting farm, wagon rides, big slides, zip lines, u-pick apple orchard & live duck races.

7301 Rivershore Rd | Snohomish
(425) 330-3084
swanstrailfarms.com

 


South of Seattle

 

Carpinito Brothers Corn Maze & Pumpkin Patch
Rubber duck races, hay slides, corn pit, farm animals, hay maze, & corn maze.

Pumpkin Patch: 27508 W Valley Hwy N | Kent
Farm Fun Yard: 6720 S 277th St | Kent
(253) 854-5692
carpinito.com

 

Maris Farms
Racing pigs & ducks, mega slide, corn maze, jump pillow, animals, zip lines, rides, plus the creepy “Haunted Woods” complete with zombies and homicidal maniacs.

25001 Sumner-Buckley Highway | Buckley
(253) 862-2848
marisfarms.com

 

Mosby Farms
Dog-friendly! Corn maze and fresh farm market.

3104 SE Auburn-Black Diamond Rd | Auburn
(253) 405-0711
mosbyfarm.com/pumpkinpatch

 

Spooner Farms
Corn maze, pumpkin sling shot, speedway, farm animals, caramel apples, & roasted corn.

9710 State Route 162 East | Puyallup
(253) 840-2059
spoonerberries.com

 

Thomasson Family Farm
Laser tag, corn maze, play barn, farm animals, slides, duck races, trike track, apple slingshot, and giant Jenga & Connect 4.

38223 236th Avenue SE | Enumclaw
(360) 802-0503
thomassonfarm.com


 

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We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.

2737 77th Ave SE, Mercer Island, WA 98040 | (206) 232-0446
mercerisland@windermere.com

© Copyright 2022 Windermere Mercer Island

Community October 4, 2018

Puget Sound Pumpkin Patches

Oh My Gourd! My Favorite Patches Around the Sound

Grab your boots, pack a thermos…it’s time to choose those perfect Halloween pumpkins! This year, why not explore a new town and make your pumpkin patch experience a true adventure? All of these farms are open every weekend in October, and most are open on weekdays too. Check out their websites to find the most current hours.

EASTSIDE

Fall City Farms
Pumpkins, cider, mini doughnuts, wagon rides & farm animals.
3636 Neal Road | Fall City, WA
(425) 222-4553
fallcityfarms.com/pumpkins

Fox Hollow Farm
Hay maze, Haunted Forest, bounce inflatables, farm animals, s’more roasting…and espresso!
12031 Issaquah-Hobart Rd. SE | Issaquah
(425) 996-0575
foxhollowfamilyfarm.com

Jubilee Farm
Hay rides, pumpkin trebuchet, food trucks, music, hay maze & hand-crank cider press.
229 W Snoqualmie River Rd NE | Carnation
(425) 222-4558
jubileefarm.org

Oxbow Farm
Kids’ farm tours, hay rides, arts & crafts, climbing tractor, house of hay & pumpkin slingshot.
10819 Carnation-Duvall Rd. NE | Carnation
(425) 788-1134
oxbow.org/oxtober

Remlinger Farms
25 rides & attractions (including a mini roller coaster!), hay rides, pony rides & farm faire.
32610 NE 32nd Street | Carnation, WA
(425) 451-8740
remlingerfarms.com

Two Brothers Pumpkin Patch at Game Haven Greenery
Baby calves and an eerie number of well-attired scarecrows.
7110 310th Avenue NE | Carnation, WA
(425) 333-4313
facebook.com/twobrotherspumpkins


NORTH OF SEATTLE

Bailey Vegetables
Play barn, wagon rides, kettle corn, and oodles of fresh produce.
12711 Springhetti Rd | Snohomish
(360) 568-8826
baileyveg.com

Bob’s Corn & Pumpkin Farm
10-acre corn maze, kids’ maze, play area, big slides & apple cannon.
10917 Elliott Road | Snohomish
(360) 668-2506
bobscorn.com

Carleton Farm
Pumpkin cannon, zip line, hay mountain, kids’ corn maze & giant pumpkin jump pad.
630 Sunnyside Blvd SE | Lake Stevens, WA
(425) 334-2297
carletonfarm.com

Craven Farm
Corn mazes, farm animals, miniature golf, hay rides, espresso (!) & face painting.
13817 Short School Road | Snohomish
(360) 568-2601
cravenfarm.com/fall-festival

Fairbank Animal & Pumpkin Farm
Tiny Tot “maize maze,” hay tunnel, veggie garden & flocks of farm animals.
15308 52nd Ave W | Edmonds
(425) 743-3694
fairbankfarm.com

Stocker Farms
Country Market: 10622 Airport Way | Snohomish
7-Acre Corn Maze & Pumpkin Events: 8705 Marsh Rd | Snohomish
(360) 568-7391
stockerfarms.com

The Farm at Swan’s Trail in Snohomish
Corn maze, petting farm, wagon rides, u-pick apple orchard & live duck races.
7301 Rivershore Rd | Snohomish
(425) 334-4124
thefarm1.com


SOUTH OF SEATTLE

Carpinito Brothers Corn Maze & Pumpkin Patch
Rubber duck derby, hay rides, hay slides, kettle corn & corn maze
6868 S. 277th St | Kent
(253) 854-5692
carpinito.com

Maris Farms
Racing pigs & ducks, corn maze, plus the creepy “Haunted Woods” complete with zombies and homicidal maniacs.
25001 Sumner-Buckley Highway | Buckley
(253) 377-3574
marisfarms.com

Mosby Farms
Corn maze, hay rides and fresh farm market.
12754 SE Green Valley Road | Auburn
(253) 405-0711
mosbyfarm.com/pumpkin-patch

Scholz Farm and Garden
Farm animals, corn maze, fresh veggies & preserves.
14310 128th Street E | Puyallup
(253) 848-7604
pugetsoundfresh.org/farm/scholz-farm-and-garden

Spooner Farms
Corn maze, pumpkin sling shot, farm animals, face painting, caramel apples & roasted corn.
9710 State Route 162 East | Puyallup
(253) 840-2059
spoonerberries.com

Thomasson Family Farm
Laser tag, corn box, hay barn, petting farm, slides, duck races, wagon rides & tricycle track
38223 236th Avenue SE | Enumclaw
(360) 802-0503
thomassonfarm.com
 


ABOUT WINDERMERE MERCER ISLAND

We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.

windermeremercerisland.com | (206) 232-0446 | mercerisland@windermere.com
2737 77th Ave SE, Mercer Island, WA 98040.

© Copyright 2018, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island.