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Selling Your Home: 5 Common Myths
Selling your home is a crash course in real estate education. My clients learn a LOT as we work together to find a buyer and sell at the right price. As you prepare to sell, it’s important to remember that that not everything you’ve heard is true. There are several common myths that can lead to costly mistakes in the selling process. Knowing the truth behind them will clarify your selling journey and help you align your expectations…
Myth 1: Home Value Calculators Are 100% Accurate
Online Automated Valuation Models (AVMs) are a great starting point for understanding how much your home could be worth. However, they are merely a first step in determining home value; to say they are 100% accurate is a myth. When it comes to pricing your home, you need to rely on a true Comparative Market Analysis (CMA), which uses vast amounts of historical and current data on real estate listings to arrive at an accurate and competitive figure.
To get an estimate of how much your home is worth, try our Home Worth Calculator here:
Myth 2: Selling FSBO Will Save You Money
Selling a home requires an intimate knowledge of the housing industry and how to solve the complex situations that arise throughout a real estate transaction. Despite this, some sellers will go it alone and attempt to sell their property without being represented by an agent.
Selling For Sale by Owner (FSBO) is a risky proposition. It requires the seller to bear added liability, fills their schedule with various marketing and promotional responsibilities, and can leave money on the table by inaccurately pricing the property, causing it to sit on the market for too long. The potential costs of selling a home on your own far outweigh the commission real estate agents earn on a home sale.
Myth 3: You Must Remodel to Sell Your Home
The question you’ll face when preparing to sell your home is whether to sell as is or remodel. The answer usually lies somewhere in between, but it depends on your situation and what kinds of home upgrades are driving buyer interest locally. When making improvements to your home, lean toward high ROI remodeling projects to get the best bang for your buck, and avoid trendy projects that can delay listing your home. If you’re considering major upscale renovations, talk to me about which projects buyers in your area are looking for.
Myth 4: Never Accept the First Offer
You’ve likely heard tell that the first buyer’s offer is nothing more than a springboard to up your asking price and to never accept it. In this case, “never” should be approached with caution. In reality, the best offer for your home is one that you and your listing agent have discussed that aligns with your goals. If a matching offer happens to be the first one that comes your way, so be it. The market can shift at any time, so you never know what may happen if you leave an offer on the table. And if the buyer backs out of the deal, you and your agent will find a path forward.
Myth 5: Home Staging Doesn’t Make a Big Difference
Staging your home is so much more than a cosmetic touch-up; it has been proven to help sell homes faster and at a higher price than non-staged homes.1 Staging ensures that your home has universal appeal, which attracts the widest possible pool of potential buyers. When buyers are able to easily imagine living in your home, they become more connected to the property. You should stage your home regardless of your local market conditions, but it can be especially helpful in competitive markets with limited inventory where even the slightest edge can make all the difference for sellers.
Now that you know some of the most common myths in the selling process, get to know its truths. Connect with me to get the process started:
1: National Association of REALTORS® – Why Home Staging Inspires the Best Prices in Any Housing Market
We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.
This article originally appeared on the Windermere Blog, written by: Sandy Dodge.
How’s the Market? Q3 2024 Review of Seattle Area Real Estate
While Q3’s summertime market slowed a bit from the frenetic spring pace of Q2 (we call this the “Summer Slump”), median home values are up across the region compared to this time last year. Most homes still sold at or above their listed prices in the first 10 days on market. However, buyers had more choice with higher inventory levels AND some room to negotiate on price for those homes that stayed on the market past the 10-day mark.
What does this mean for the rest of 2024? We typically see buyer activity decrease as we head into the holidays, and of course, it’s also election season. If you’ve been considering a purchase and are of the mindset that you don’t want to compete, THIS IS YOUR MARKET! For sellers the average days on market in Q3 was 20 for Seattle and 18 for the Eastside. Which means: if your price didn’t attract a buyer in the first two weeks, it’s probably time to re-evaluate. Interest rates are better than they’ve been since mid 2022. Quality inventory is being presented to the market. If you see a great house, be prepared to move quickly. Opportunity Knocks.
Click or scroll down to find your area report:
Seattle | Eastside | Mercer Island | Condos | Waterfront
SEATTLE
Lots of good news in Seattle during our post-summer glow. Prices are up year over year by 5% to $937,000. While we’re still under the peak median of $1,000,000 set in Q2 of 2022 and $970,000 from last quarter, this is so typical for Q3. We’ve seen it every year from Q2 to Q3 going back to 2018 (except in 2020 largely because the real estate market shut down completely in Q2). Buyers had lots of choice, with more inventory to end the quarter than we’ve had since Q3 of 2022. Even with these buyer bright spots we still saw 56% of homes sell in the first 10 days and 34% over the asking price.
Average price per square foot and median price were in positive territory across the board this quarter in all neighborhoods. Richmond Beach/Shoreline and Madison Park/Capitol Hill both saw larger than typical gains in $/sq.ft. (11%) and median price (10%) respectively. North Seattle appeared to be the “hottest” market around with 64% of homes selling in the first 10 days. Again, really great numbers in Seattle given that Summer Slump was in full effect.
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
EASTSIDE
The Eastside continues to be the region’s crown jewel of real estate. Median prices are up again year over year by 8%. Most of us felt what we lovingly call the Summer Slump, and the numbers confirmed this. Prices (median) AND transactions were down 6% overall when compared against Q2 of 2024. That’s a $100,000 dip in median sales price if you missed the spring market. This is absolutely typical for the PNW and Metro King County. Seasonally our peak seasons are spring and post Labor Day/pre-holiday. This year that may be disrupted by election distractions. Time will tell if it’s a market lacking in consumer confidence or simply existential distraction.
The micro markets across the Eastside are fairly homogeneous. Among the 8 neighborhoods that we track, the median price swing was 3-11% but all in a positive direction. Total transaction volume is up 18% signaling that eventually life changes will trump a 2.5% interest rate. While homes were mostly selling in the first 10 days, multiple offers/paying over asking price were not the norm. In fact, the split between at, above, and below was relatively even.
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
MERCER ISLAND
Fall has come for Mercer Island. The summer construction on Island Crest is done, school buses are out en force, and those filtered views that only come out in winter are starting to show. It’s time to look back fondly at the summer real estate market: prices are up YOY by 3% to $2,440,000 to end the quarter. This is likely more about trailing gains from a robust spring than it is about actual gains from Q3, given the indicators. A whopping 40% of homes sold under list price. It took 40% longer than 10 days to sell (not necessarily the same 40%) but only for about a 2% discount. This suggests that seller pricing and buyer motivation are evenly matched. There were 50 active listings at end of quarter, the most since Q2 of 2020 when real estate shut down completely.
Focusing on neighborhoods, The Lakes, Mercerwood, Mercerdale, and Mercer Island Estates saw 100% of homes sell in the first 10 days for an average of 102% of sales price. This goes to show that in any market, despite overall conditions, there will always be “hot homes.” Mid-Island had the most overall activity with 22 of the 68 sales across the Island. These occurred at $865/foot and 16 of the 22 homes sold in the first 10 days for at or above list price.
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
CONDOS – SEATTLE & EASTSIDE
Once again, we’re rooting for the Seattle condo market as it proves to be the little engine that could! Chugging along toward modest price gains even when the rest of the market seems to be struggling a bit, Seattle condo prices have held steady for the last 6 quarters, with mostly positive change. Eastside condos hit a median price all-time high in Q2 at $709,000. We’re off of that a touch to $690,000 in Q3, to be expected after a beautiful summer. The Eastside ended the quarter with 29% more listings than this time last year and only 13% more sales. Mounting inventory tends to lead to price softening. Overall, nearly 50% of condos sold for at or above their list price!
When you compare the charts in the report, there is admittedly more positive news on the Eastside than in Seattle. Overall, we’re encouraged that despite many neighborhoods experiencing a drop in sales, average price per sq. ft. held flat and median price is up overall. On the Eastside it’s still great news all around for the market, especially in West Bellevue with 26% median sales price gains and total sales up 55%.
Friendly PSA: PLEASE remember that there is a ‘first rung’ of the property ladder. CONDOS create an affordable option to start building wealth at a younger age. It’s an important real estate product that has been overlooked. I am hopeful that enterprising young homeowners return to the condo market in droves this next real estate cycle.
Check out area-by-area details the full condo report.
WATERFRONT
While a bit slower compared to last quarter, waterfront sales remained strong in Q3 with 10 on the Eastside and 8 in Seattle. Lake Sammamish moderated in summer with just 5 sales compared to the crazy 15 we saw in spring, while Mercer Island stayed fairly steady with 4 (compared to 6 in spring). The highest sale was nearly $18 million for an immense Wendell Lovett designed 6,920 sq. ft. home on 125 feet of prime “gold coast” waterfront in Medina. The most modest sale was also on the Eastside—an original 1943 cottage on 53 feet of west-facing waterfront in Kennydale.
This brief overview of the entire Seattle-Eastside private waterfront market, including Mercer Island and Lake Sammamish, illustrates the trends occurring in our region over time. This data is interesting and insightful but cannot replace an in-depth waterfront analysis with your trusted professional.
We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.
© Copyright 2024, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island. Information and statistics derived from Northwest Multiple Listing Service and Trendgraphix, and deemed accurate but not guaranteed. Seattle cover photo courtesy of Kathryn Buchanan and Brandon Larson, Clarity Northwest Photography. Mercer Island cover photo courtesy of The Sirianni Group and Clarity Northwest Photography. Condo cover photo courtesy of Julie Wilson and Bobby Erdt, Clarity Northwest Photography. Waterfront cover photo courtesy of Anni Zilz and Andrew Webb, Clarity Northwest Photography.
How’s the Market? Q2 2024 Review of Seattle Area Real Estate
Median sales prices were up across the region in Q2 of 2024 compared to this time last year, with the Eastside posting the highest year-over-year appreciation. What should you know that the numbers don’t show? We’re back to a typical PNW seasonal market. Higher temps typically lead buyers to lose focus. There is still quality inventory hitting the market. If you don’t need to sell in order to buy, this summer is the perfect opportunity for you. There are some great deals out there, and this fall election season will be in full swing which will surely have an impact on all markets.
Click or scroll down to find your area report:
Seattle | Eastside | Mercer Island | Condos | Waterfront
SEATTLE
The median home price in Seattle is up 8% year over year to $970,000! We are just 3% shy of the peak median price of $1,000,000 set in Q2 of 2022. With steady growth over the last couple of quarters one might assume that we’ll hit peak prices again shortly. This gain isn’t because of low inventory (up 18%) or a rapid growth in demand (sales are down 4%), it’s likely chalked up to interest rates under 7% AND buyers got tired of sitting on the sidelines. In all cases, the first half of this year has been a breath of fresh air.
Lake Forest Park saw the biggest drop in total number of sales at 34% BUT they also saw the highest jump in median price: up 19% to $1,015,000. Their neighbors to the West, Richmond Beach and Shoreline, saw the largest rise in sales with a 19% gain in total volume AND the only area to post a drop in median price. Down 1%. Madison Park/Capitol Hill is the only other area of the city to post double digit gains. All in all a robust spring quarter.
76% of homes sold for at or above list price and 71% of homes sold in the first 10 days on the market for an average of 105% of the list price. This tells us, if you find “The One,” don’t sleep on it, and be prepared to pay. Especially in the $800,000 to $1,500,000 price band.
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
EASTSIDE
Everything’s coming up roses this spring on the Eastside. Home values have soared 16% year-over-year, with the median sale price reaching $1,675,000. This reflects a 4% gain from the peak in 2022. (Not all metro King County areas have reached peak prices again.) This impressive growth reflects a thriving market, with an average home selling for $700 per square foot, up 14% from last year. What’s even more fun? A whopping 78% of homes sold within the first 10 days of listing, showing just how bullish buyers are on the market.
Neighborhoods across the Eastside are shining. Eastside South saw 251 homes sold, marking a 37% increase, with a median sale price of $1,799,000, up 20%. Meanwhile, West Bellevue’s median sale price jumped to $3,574,000, up 13%. Mercer Island continues to charm buyers, with homes selling for an average of $906 per square foot and a median price increase of 18%, reaching $2,585,000.
Overall, the Eastside market is buzzing with activity. With 1,773 homes sold (a 17% rise YoY), it’s clear that both buyers and sellers are seizing opportunities. The increase in new listings by 29% compared to last year adds to the market’s appeal. East Bellevue and Redmond also show significant growth, with median sale prices climbing by 7% and 27%, respectively. The Eastside has staying power post Covid, clearly.
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
MERCER ISLAND
Home prices have seen a remarkable year-over-year increase of 18%, with the median sale price reaching $2,585,000. While this is a great sign for the health of the market, we’re still 5% below the 2022 peak. Affordability seems to be what is driving the market forward. Interest rates are down YoY. In relation to Q1 2024, prices are up a modest 2.5% which feels to us like: healthy sustainable growth.
Q2 2024 saw only a 3% rise in new listings compared to the same quarter last year, while there were 3 fewer homes sold in 2024 vs. 2023. Inventory and absorption remains relatively flat year over year. So it might be surprising that there is a robust demand for Mercer Island properties, with 66% of homes sold within the first 10 days of listing and that 18% rise in median price. Lower asking prices coupled with slight interest rate relief seem to be the explanation.
Taking a peek at the neighborhood snapshot reveals varying performance across different Mercer Island areas, yet the overall trend remains positive. For instance, the Northend saw 15 homes sold at an average of $810 per square foot, with 73% of these sales occurring at or above the listing price, and 60% sold within the first 10 days. On the higher end, East Seattle and The Lakes neighborhoods showcased exceptional performance, with all homes sold at or above the listing price and achieving 100% sales within the first 10 days. Overall, the average price per square foot for the island increased year-over-year, reaching $906.
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
CONDOS – SEATTLE & EASTSIDE
It’s good news only in the condo market! Seattle condos saw modest yet positive growth, with the median sale price rising 5% year-over-year to $636,000. The average price per square foot climbed to $649, a 7% increase, showing strong market demand. Condos in Ballard and Green Lake led the charge with a 31% increase in sales volume, while Downtown-Belltown, despite a 14% drop in sales, saw prices rise by 10%. Demand seems to be all over the board, but we’re still reporting the highest median sales price ever for Seattle condos!
On the Eastside, the market was buzzing with activity, in large part due to inventory being double what it was in Q2 of 2023. Redmond condos were the stars, with sales skyrocketing by 65% and the median sale price jumping 45% to $850,000. West Bellevue followed suit with a 38% increase in sales and a 33% hike in price per square foot, reaching $1,064. The overall Eastside market saw a 22% rise in sales and a 13% increase in the average price per square foot, now at $660.
It’s important to note that 62% of all condos selling at or above their list price across Seattle and the Eastside, showing a competitive market where buyers are eager to snap up properties quickly. With more new listings than last year there are plenty of opportunities for buyers and sellers alike. Whether you’re eyeing a trendy spot in Ballard or a luxurious condo in West Bellevue, the upbeat condo market promises exciting possibilities for everyone!
Friendly PSA: PLEASE remember that there is a ‘first rung’ of the property ladder. CONDOS create an affordable option to start building wealth at a younger age. It’s an important real estate product that has been overlooked. I am hopeful that enterprising young homeowners return to the condo market in droves this next real estate cycle.
Check out area-by-area details the full condo report.
WATERFRONT
Lake Sammamish led the pack in Q2 with a whopping 15 waterfront sales, while the Eastside was close behind with 12. Of Seattle’s 9 waterfront sales, all but 2 sold in less than 10 days. It was a similar story with Mercer Island’s 6 sales—all but 1 sold in less than 10 days and 4 sold above the asking price. Meydenbauer took the crown for largest waterfront sale, fetching $21.3 million for a truly stunning 1-acre estate with 164 feet of waterfront and a palatial 11,000+ sq. ft. home. The most modest waterfront sale was a Rainier Beach gem on 50 feet of waterfront that sold in just 8 days for $1,725,000.
This brief overview of the entire Seattle-Eastside private waterfront market, including Mercer Island and Lake Sammamish, illustrates the trends occurring in our region over time. This data is interesting and insightful but cannot replace an in-depth waterfront analysis with your trusted professional.
Main photo courtesy of Wing Walker Aerial Photography
We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.
© Copyright 2024, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island. Information and statistics derived from Northwest Multiple Listing Service and Trendgraphix, and deemed accurate but not guaranteed. Seattle cover photo courtesy of Codi Nelson and HD Estates Photography. Eastside cover photo courtesy of Donovan Realty Group and Tucker English Photography. Mercer Island cover photo courtesy of Yvonne Willard and Ryan Slimak, Clarity Northwest Photography. Condo cover photo courtesy of Luke Bartlett and Matthew Gallant, Clarity Northwest Photography. Waterfront cover photo courtesy of Kathryn Buchanan and Brandon Larson, Clarity Northwest Photography.
Why Buyer Representation Matters So Much to Sellers
In today’s rapidly changing real estate landscape, understanding the critical role of buyer representation has never been more essential for home sellers. With the pending NAR settlement on the horizon, many sellers may not fully grasp the significant impact these changes will have on their transactions. The urgency to adapt is real, and overlooking the necessity of paying a buyer agent compensation could expose sellers to unforeseen risks.
Currently, home buyers are not allowed to roll their buyer agent compensation into their loan. This means they must bring cash to the table to pay their agent (if the seller is not offering buyer agent compensation).
Unrepresented buyers should be considered more than a minor hiccup—it can lead to a cascade of complications that jeopardize the entire deal. To safeguard your investment and ensure a smooth transaction, it’s crucial to recognize the invaluable support a buyer’s agent provides.
What value does a seller receive if the buyer has professional representation? Let us list the ways:
Lender Connections: Buyer agents connect their buyers with well-vetted (and typically local) lender partners who have proven time and again that they can close a transaction, and on time.
Documentation Management: Buyer agents ensure that buyers have delivered all necessary documentation to the lender to ensure full underwriting.
Market Analysis: Buyer agents provide comparable market analysis reports (CMAs) to help buyers understand the market value of the home and support a reasonable offer price.
Contract Guidance: Buyer agents guide their clients through the purchase and sale agreement, ensuring that they understand the terms and conditions and their ability to fulfill their commitments.
Contingency Explanation: Buyer agents explain all contingencies to buyers, ensuring they understand the risks and rewards, especially when waiving contingencies.
Earnest Money Handling: Buyer agents ensure that earnest money funds are delivered to escrow on time.
Transaction Deadlines: Buyer agents ensure that their client and their lender observe and adhere to all deadlines to keep the transaction flowing smoothly and closing on time.
Inspection Access: Buyer agents provide access to home inspectors and help their buyers understand the reports. This is critical as most MLS associations require an agent to be present whenever a door is opened. If the buyer doesn’t have representation, the listing agent must give access, exposing them to inspection findings and forcing them to disclose on behalf of the seller.
Appraisal Assistance: Buyer agents give access to appraisers and typically provide reports of comparable properties to support the purchase price, ensuring the property appraises at value.
Negotiation Support: If the appraisal report comes in less than the purchase price, the buyer agent will help negotiate and collaborate with the listing agent to ensure a mutual agreement is reached by all parties.
Transaction Coordination: Most importantly, the buyer agent helps keep their client and all parties on track to ensure closing, and crucially, on time.
The value a buyer agent brings to the transaction is indispensable. Their expertise not only facilitates a smoother process but also protects all parties involved from potential pitfalls. By ensuring the buyer has professional representation, sellers can avoid significant risks and secure a successful transaction. In the evolving real estate market, investing in buyer agent compensation is a wise decision that benefits everyone involved.
We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.
This article originally appeared on the Windermere blog on 5/29/24 & Inman News on 5/21/24.
How’s the Market? Q1 2024 Review of Seattle Area Real Estate
The Seattle/Eastside real estate market is hot and the Q1 stats support the claim; most homes sold in the first 10 days and either at or above their listed prices. Eastside median sales prices saw double-digit gains of 14% compared to this time last year, while Seattle was close behind with a 9% price bump. We saw more new listings this year than in Q1 of 2023; however, this was not enough to tip the scales and we remain staunchly in a seller’s market for the foreseeable future. The good news for buyers is that interest rates have stabilized and more sellers are jumping off the fence to list their homes. Competition for prime properties will remain high, however, so buyers should be prepared to take a leap of their own when the right home presents itself.
Click or scroll down to find your area report:
Seattle | Eastside | Mercer Island | Condos | Waterfront
SEATTLE
It’s safe to say the spring market hit early in Seattle! We’ve seen a 9% rise in median home price and 69% of listings selling at or above list price, all while interest rates are in the mid 6s. We are bullish on the year to come. Overall sales are down 3% YoY, which is slightly troubling because Q1 2023 saw a 28% dip from the previous year. If you dig a little deeper it seems that the north end (Kenmore and Lake Forest Park) saw a 42% reduction in overall sales with a 30% increase in median price.
Prices are up across the board. The largest jumps in median price are in Lake Forest Park and North Seattle (30% and 23% respectively), while the highest $/sq.ft. jumps were in Madison Park and South Seattle. 56% of all homes on the west side sold in the first 10 days and for an average of 105% of list price. This is a great indicator that the market will continue to be strong in Q2.
The total number of new listings remains relatively low in the city, when compared with years past. This is to be expected as current homeowners stay put to enjoy their cozy sub-3% interest rates. We hope that equity will begin burning holes in their pockets soon—the market could use the inventory. If you’ve been thinking about buying, this could be your year! Get pre-approved and be ready to jump when you see the right home come available.
If you’ve thought about selling your home, it may be a good year to do so. As is typical in the early stages of appreciating cycles, buyers are brought off the fence by “the house” popping up—and they’re paying premiums for cream puff properties. Interest rates have stabilized and experts say they may become even more favorable as the year progresses. Check with your agent about your own unique situation.
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
EASTSIDE
The numbers are in and the statistics reflect what agents and consumers have felt thus far in 2024—the market is hot. Median home prices on the greater Eastside are up 14%. 65% of all listed homes sold in the first ten days for an average of 105% of list price. The communities that have posted the largest gains are Kirkland and the area South of I-90 (32% and 21%). Redmond and West Bellevue reported much more conservative median price increases at 4%. The total number of pending homes was up 18% YoY, which bodes well for continued price gains.
If you’re in the market to purchase a home on the Eastside we are hopeful for more inventory this year. Even though rates are still nowhere near their all-time lows, which was the anecdotal explanation for lack of inventory in 2023, it seems that a Q1 sales boom is enough to help potential home sellers feel bullish on 2024. This means you can also expect competition for the prime properties. Our best home buying advice: do your research, act with confidence, and remember real estate is a long-term investment.
If you’re a homeowner thinking about a home sale in 2024, Q2 could be the perfect time. Shoppers are out in droves and they’re prepared to pay top dollar for quality product. The steep jump in median home price should continue at least into Q2. The only threat in Q3 and Q4 is what could shape up to be a distracting election cycle. Though, the election year is likely what is keeping downward pressure on rates. Our best home selling advice: follow your agents’ guidance on timing as it’s sure to be a volatile year. Prep hard and price conservatively. It will all work out in your favor.
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
MERCER ISLAND
What a difference a year makes! In Q1, Mercer Island’s median sale price is already up 13% over a relatively flat year in 2023, rising from around $2,200,000 to $2,520,000. We’re seeing shorter market times and multiple offers; spring has sprung on the Island. With 59 new listings and 37 closed sales inventory appears to be tracking with what we’ve seen in Q1 in years past. That said, condos continue to lag behind single family: only 6 closed sales all quarter. The average price per square foot is $535—about where it’s been tracking since it jumped from $485 in Q1 of 2021. Not a lot of shocking change here.
If you’re in the market to purchase a home on Mercer Island you can expect better inventory this year than last year. Even though rates are still nowhere near their all-time lows, which was the anecdotal explanation for low inventory in 2023, it seems that a Q1 sales boom is enough to help potential home sellers feel bullish on 2024. This means you can also expect competition for the prime properties. Our advice: do your research, act with confidence, and remember real estate is a long-term investment.
If you’ve been thinking about selling your home to upgrade or downsize, Q2 could be the perfect time. Shoppers are out in droves and they’re prepared to pay top dollar for quality product. The steep jump in median home price should continue at least into Q2. The only threat in Q3 and Q4 is what could shape up to be a distracting election cycle. That being said, the election year is likely what is keeping downward pressure on rates. Our advice: follow your agents’ guidance on timing as the situation develops this year. Prep hard and price conservatively. It will all work out in your favor.
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
CONDOS – SEATTLE & EASTSIDE
It seems a healthy start to 2024 in the condo market. While the Q1 of 2023 numbers were down across the board, Q1 of 2024 is looking up with a combined rise in price of 15% and 34% more fresh new listings (YoY).
On the Eastside there were 202 active listings available at the end of the quarter, while 501 homes accepted offers during the quarter. This was the highest number of pendings in one quarter in the last two years! To real estate professionals, “pendings” are the canary in the coal mine of the market. A spike in pendings is a predictor that the market is heating up.
In Seattle new listings doubled from Q4 2023 (534) to Q1 2024 (1019), while pendings and solds are up 20% YoY. If you’re shopping for a condo, keep an eye out for enticing new inventory in Q2. 42% of Seattle condos sold in the first 10 days and for 100% of the list price. 44% of condos took more than 30 days to sell, though they still commanded 97% of their list price. To me this means that pricing is more important than ever in determining your outcome.
Now it’s time for me to stand on the home ownership soap box. There seem to be a lot of headlines about the unaffordability of single family homes. While there is no denying how expensive it is, there is a missing piece to the story: at some point during the prolonged period of “cheap money” first time buyers forgot about the first rung of the property ladder. CONDOS create an affordable option to start building wealth at a younger age. It’s an important real estate product that has been overlooked. We are hopeful that enterprising young homeowners return to the condo market in droves this next real estate cycle.
Check out area-by-area details the full condo report.
WATERFRONT
Seattle and the Eastside each had 6 waterfront sales in the first quarter, with 4 out of the 6 sales for both areas closing at or above the listing price (including one unlisted sale). All of the Eastside’s listed sales were on the market for only 8 days or less. Lake Sammamish was close behind with 5 sales (however 4 out 5 sales went below the asking price) and Mercer Island lagged behind with just 1 sale. Medina boasted the largest waterfront sale, a newer home on 117 feet of lakefront with a mind-blowing 13,590 interior square feet and 1.5 acres of grounds. The most modest sale was for a Lake Forest Park home on just 40 feet of waterfront—it sold almost immediately for 7% above its asking price.
This brief overview of the entire Seattle-Eastside private waterfront market, including Mercer Island and Lake Sammamish, illustrates the trends occurring in our region over time. This data is interesting and insightful but cannot replace an in-depth waterfront analysis with your trusted professional.
We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.
© Copyright 2024, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island. Information and statistics derived from Northwest Multiple Listing Service and Trendgraphix, and deemed accurate but not guaranteed. Seattle cover photo courtesy of Brooke Davis and Emerald City Snap. Eastside cover photo courtesy of Team RAREnorthwest and Clarity Northwest Photography. Mercer Island cover photo courtesy of Nancy LaVallee and Clarity Northwest Photography. Condo cover photo courtesy of Michael Fleming and Clarity Northwest Photography.
Q4 2022 Western Washington Economic & Real Estate Update
The following analysis of select counties of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. I hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.
Regional Economic Overview
Although the job market in Western Washington continues to grow, the pace has started to slow. The region added over 91,000 new jobs during the past year, but the 12-month growth rate is now below 100,000, a level we have not seen since the start of the post-COVID job recovery. That said, all but three counties have recovered completely from their pandemic job losses and total regional employment is up more than 52,000 jobs. The regional unemployment rate in November was 3.8%, which was marginally above the 3.7% level of a year ago. Many business owners across the country are pondering whether we are likely to enter a recession this year. As a result, it’s very possible that they will start to slow their expansion in anticipation of an economic contraction.
Western Washington Home Sales
❱ In the final quarter of 2022, 12,711 homes sold, representing a drop of 42% from the same period in 2021. Sales were 34.7% lower than in the third quarter of 2022.
❱ Listing activity rose in every market year over year but fell more than 26% compared to the third quarter, which is expected given the time of year.
❱ Home sales fell across the board relative to the fourth quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022.
❱ Pending sales (demand) outpaced listings (supply) by a factor of 1:2. This was down from 1:6 in the third quarter. That ratio has been trending lower for the past year, which suggests that buyers are being more cautious and may be waiting for mortgage rates to drop.
Western Washington Home Prices
❱ Sale prices fell an average of 2% compared to the same period the year prior and were 6.1% lower than in the third quarter of 2022. The average sale price was $702,653.
❱ The median listing price in the fourth quarter of 2022 was 5% lower than in the third quarter. Only Skagit County experienced higher asking prices. Clearly, sellers are starting to be more realistic about the shift in the market.
❱ Even though the region saw aggregate prices fall, prices rose in six counties year over year.
❱ Much will be said about the drop in prices, but I am not overly concerned. Like most of the country, the Western Washington market went through a period of artificially low borrowing costs, which caused home values to soar. But now prices are trending back to more normalized levels, which I believe is a good thing.
Mortgage Rates
Rates rose dramatically in 2022, but I believe that they have now peaked. Mortgage rates are primarily based on the prices and yields of bonds, and while bonds take cues from several places, they are always impacted by inflation and the economy at large. If inflation continues to fall, as I expect it will, rates will continue to drop.
My current forecast is that mortgage rates will trend lower as we move through the year. While this may be good news for home buyers, rates will still be higher than they have become accustomed to. Even as the cost of borrowing falls, home prices in expensive markets such as Western Washington will probably fall a bit more to compensate for rates that will likely hold above 6% until early summer.
Western Washington Days on Market
❱ It took an average of 41 days for homes to sell in the fourth quarter of 2022. This was 17 more days than in the same quarter of 2021, and 16 days more than in the third quarter of 2022.
❱ King County was again the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 31 days to find a buyer.
❱ All counties contained in this report saw the average time on market rise from the same period a year ago.
❱ Year over year, the greatest increase in market time was Snohomish County, where it took an average of 23 more days to find a buyer. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, San Juan County saw average market time rise the most (from 34 to 74 days).
Conclusions
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
The regional economy is still growing, but it is showing signs of slowing. Although this is not an immediate concern, if employees start to worry about job security, they may decide to wait before making the decision to buy or sell a home. As we move through the spring I believe the market will be fairly soft, but I would caution buyers who think conditions are completely shifting in their direction. Due to the large number of homeowners who have a mortgage at 3% or lower, I simply don’t believe the market will become oversupplied with inventory, which will keep home values from dropping too significantly.
Ultimately, however, the market will benefit buyers more than sellers, at least for the time being. As such, I have moved the needle as close to the balance line as we have seen in a very long time.
About Matthew Gardner
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
This article originally appeared on the Windermere blog January 26th, 2023. Written by: Matthew Gardner.
© Copyright 2023, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island.
How’s the Market? Annual Review of Seattle Area Real Estate
While 2022 began on the heels of an extreme seller’s market we saw in the wake of the COVID pandemic, the second half of the year showed a marked shift back toward normalcy. Rising interest rates and tech layoffs significantly slowed down the number of home sales. The good news for buyers is that we finally saw a rise in the number of homes for sale (although we’re still not back up to our pre-pandemic inventory level).
Our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, predicts that median home prices will continue to pull back from their 2022 spike, but will then resume a more normal level of appreciation once interest rates stabilize. You can find his full forecast here.
Click or scroll down to find your area report:
Seattle | Eastside | Mercer Island | Condos | Waterfront
SEATTLE
The Seattle real estate market seems to be out to prove the old “tortoise and the hare” fable. The tale the numbers are telling is that when you don’t boom big, you’re likely not to bust big. 2022 was a year of steady growth and a lot less fear than in surrounding cities.
On average in a 2022 total look back, Seattle’s median price was up 10% (to $940,000) over $852,000 in 2021. Most of this gain was realized in the first half of the year, and unfortunately eroded in the second half of the year—when combined, it paints a fairly clear picture that we’re back to a “normal” market coming into 2023.
Queen Anne-Magnolia (up 17%), West Seattle (up 14%) and the Central District (up 13%) all fared better than average. Kenmore hung in at a 6% gain, which, given the volatility of interest rates and speculation, is still a respectable number for the year!
The headline for this year is that overall transaction volume was down in a big way. In Seattle, there were a total of 8,173 homes that sold; this is down 30% from the 11,670 sales we saw the year before. The slower market is not, however, creating a climate of fear where homeowners jump to cash out at the peak. New listings for the year were down a total of 13%.
We’ll be watching closely in 2023. If consumer confidence builds with the stabilization of interest rates, we’re going to have an even larger inventory crisis than we’ve faced in years past.
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
EASTSIDE
Finally, it’s safe to say that balance and normalcy have returned to the Eastside real estate market. The irony is: now that we’re in a balanced market, which is what homebuyers have purported to crave for a long time, the buyer’s appetite to purchase has all but dried up; overall transaction volume was down 36% in 2022 (5,448 sales vs. 8,569 in 2021).
If any of you are considering a move in the next 5 years, NOW is the time. The pendulum has swung back in the buyer’s favor: home inspections, negotiations and contingencies are all prevalent. We may not be at the exact “bottom” of pricing, but interest rates have stabilized, there are good homes for sale, and competition amongst buyers is rare. This is IT!
The Eastside’s Median Sale Price was $1,525,000 in 2022, up 14% over 2021’s unbelievable 30%+ gain ($1,350,000). Woodinville rules the day at a 17% rise, followed closely by Mercer Island (+16%) and Bellevue (both East and West at +15%).
While the market is slower paced, we are not in dire straits. This is thanks to a continued lack of inventory (down 5% YOY), and the amount of equity built in 2020 and 2021. Home sellers will spend the year working to determine the best way to attract a buyer. Price, preparation and timing will all play an important role. Home shoppers are sure to revel in their day in the sun!
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
MERCER ISLAND
Mercer Island was once again its own unique micro-market within the Pacific Northwest. Total sales volume was only 209 homes, down 46% from 2021. This means that of nearly 10,000 households on the Island, only 2% purchased/sold a home.
The pace of sales was affected not only by interest rate volatility but also by the local tech economy/job market. The median home price nevertheless held strong with a 16% rise over 2021, even with the price correction that we all started to feel mid-year.
Buyers have decided to sit on the sidelines while it all shakes out, but home-owners on Mercer Island are not running for the hills. They’re patiently waiting (often without adjusting their asking prices) for the demand to return. It seems to be working: the median list price to median sales price ratio ROSE in 2022 from 77% to 88%.
2023 should be a solid year for Mercer Island real estate. All the pieces are in place: community pride, great schools and easy transportation. Let’s see if the upward trend continues!
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
CONDOS – SEATTLE & EASTSIDE
Seattle condos saw a Median Sale Price increase of 6% (to $520,000) and Eastside condos saw a 13% increase (to $620,000) in 2022. 53% of Seattle condos and 67% of Eastside condos sold in the first ten days on the market. This growth is larger than what we saw in 2021, which hopefully is some good news to anyone thinking of selling a condo in 2023. It seems that demand for urban living may be returning.
66% of Seattle condos and 77% of Eastside condos sold at or above their listed price. Those listings that sold in the first 10 days on the market went for an average of 1% and 4% above their list price, respectively..
On the Seattle side, Shoreline and Lake Forest Park condos saw about a 20% increase—and on the Eastside, Sammamish and East Bellevue condos carried the day with 19% and 23% increases—in Median Sale Price.
Overall, condos get our award for “ones to watch.” They remain a bright spot in terms of affordability when compared to single family homes, especially on the Eastside. Compare the $620,000 median sale price of a condo to the $1,525,000 median home price and it’s clear condos are a great first rung of the property ladder that might get attention in 2023.
Check out area-by-area details the full condo report.
WATERFRONT
There were 93 privately-owned waterfront home sales in the greater Seattle-Eastside region in 2022 (Eastside-32; Seattle-36; Lake Sammamish-15; Mercer Island-10). This is down significantly from the banner year in 2021 when we saw a whopping 170 total sales.
This truly is a market with geographic limitations. With such a high volume of sales in 2021 and a relatively strong 2022, we expect 2023 to be more conservative. Our late-2022 market shift from an extreme seller’s market to a more balanced level of supply and demand coincided with the close of the waterfront selling season. This means pricing will be tricky this season as we explore uncharted waters. More than ever, real estate experts will be essential to analyze the data and consult their spidey-senses to find the price that will attract a buyer in this new normal.
This brief overview of the entire Seattle-Eastside private waterfront market, including Mercer Island and Lake Sammamish, illustrates the trends occurring in our region over time. This data is interesting and insightful but cannot replace an in-depth waterfront analysis with your trusted professional.
© Copyright 2023, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island. Information and statistics derived from Northwest Multiple Listing Service and Trendgraphix, and deemed accurate but not guaranteed.
Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023
This video shows Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
1. There Is No Housing Bubble
Mortgage rates rose steeply in 2022 which, when coupled with the massive run-up in home prices, has some suggesting that we are recreating the housing bubble of 2007. But that could not be further from the truth.
Over the past couple of years, home prices got ahead of themselves due to a perfect storm of massive pandemic-induced demand and historically low mortgage rates. While I expect year-over-year price declines in 2023, I don’t believe there will be a systemic drop in home values. Furthermore, as financing costs start to pull back in 2023, I expect that will allow prices to resume their long-term average pace of growth.
2. Mortgage Rates Will Drop
Mortgage rates started to skyrocket at the start of 2022 as the Federal Reserve announced their intent to address inflation. While the Fed doesn’t control mortgage rates, they can influence them, which we saw with the 30-year rate rising from 3.2% in early 2022 to over 7% by October.
Their efforts so far have yet to significantly reduce inflation, but they have increased the likelihood of a recession in 2023. Therefore, early in the year I expect the Fed to start pulling back from their aggressive policy stance, and this will allow rates to begin slowly stabilizing. Rates will remain above 6% until the fall of 2023 when they should dip into the high 5% range. While this is higher than we have become used to, it’s still more than 2% lower than the historic average.
3. Don’t Expect Inventory to Grow Significantly
Although inventory levels rose in 2022, they are still well below their long-term average. In 2023 I don’t expect a significant increase in the number of homes for sale, as many homeowners do not want to lose their low mortgage rate. In fact, I estimate that 25-30 million homeowners have mortgage rates around 3% or lower. Of course, homes will be listed for sale for the usual reasons of career changes, death, and divorce, but the 2023 market will not have the normal turnover in housing that we have seen in recent years.
4. No Buyer’s Market But a More Balanced One
With supply levels expected to remain well below normal, it’s unlikely that we will see a buyer’s market in 2023. A buyer’s market is usually defined as having more than six months of available inventory, and the last time we reached that level was in 2012 when we were recovering from the housing bubble. To get to six months of inventory, we would have to reach two million listings, which hasn’t happened since 2015. In addition, monthly sales would have to drop below 325,000, a number we haven’t seen in over a decade. While a buyer’s market in 2023 is unlikely, I do expect a return to a far more balanced one.
5. Sellers Will Have to Become More Realistic
We all know that home sellers have had the upper hand for several years, but those days are behind us. That said, while the market has slowed, there are still buyers out there. The difference now is that higher mortgage rates and lower affordability are limiting how much buyers can pay for a home. Because of this, I expect listing prices to pull back further in the coming year, which will make accurate pricing more important than ever when selling a home.
6. Workers Return to Work (Sort of)
The pandemic’s impact on where many people could work was profound, as it allowed buyers to look further away from their workplaces and into more affordable markets. Many businesses are still determining their long-term work-from-home policies, but in the coming year I expect there will be more clarity for workers. This could be the catalyst for those who have been waiting to buy until they know how often they’re expected to work at the office.
7. New Construction Activity Is Unlikely to Increase
Permits for new home construction are down by over 17% year over year, as are new home starts. I predict that builders will pull back further in 2023, with new starts coming in at a level we haven’t seen since before the pandemic.
Builders will start seeing some easing in the supply chain issues that hit them hard over the past two years, but development costs will still be high. Trying to balance homebuilding costs with what a consumer can pay (given higher mortgage rates) will likely lead builders to slow activity. This will actually support the resale market, as fewer new homes will increase the demand for existing homes.
8. Not All Markets Are Created Equal
Markets where home price growth rose the fastest in recent years are expected to experience a disproportionate swing to the downside. For example, markets in areas that had an influx of remote workers, who flocked to cheaper housing during the pandemic, will likely see prices fall by a greater percentage than other parts of the country. That said, even those markets will start to see prices stabilize by the end of 2023 and resume a more reasonable pace of price growth.
9. Affordability Will Continue to Be a Major Issue
In most markets, home prices will not increase in 2023, but any price drop will not be enough to make housing more affordable. And with mortgage rates remaining higher than they’ve been in over a decade, affordability will continue to be a problem in the coming year, which is a concerning outlook for first-time buyers.
Over the past two years, many renters have had aspirations of buying but the timing wasn’t quite right for them. With both prices and mortgage rates spiraling upward in 2022, it’s likely that many renters are now in a situation where the dream of homeownership has gone. That’s not to say they will never be able to buy a home, just that they may have to wait a lot longer than they had hoped.
10. Government Needs to Take Housing More Seriously
Over the past two years, the market has risen to such an extent that it has priced out millions of potential home buyers. With a wave of demand coming from Millennials and Gen Z, the pace of housing production must increase significantly, but many markets simply don’t have enough land to build on. This is why I expect more cities, counties, and states to start adjusting their land use policies to free up more land for housing.
But it’s not just land supply that can help. Elected officials can assist housing developers by utilizing Tax Increment Financing tools, whereby the government reimburses a private developer as incremental taxes are generated from housing development. There are many tools like this at the government’s disposal to help boost housing supply, and I sincerely hope that they start to take this critical issue more seriously.
About Matthew Gardner
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
This article originally appeared on the Windermere blog November 14th, 2022. Written by: Matthew Gardner.
We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.
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© Copyright 2022, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island.
What is an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM)?
Securing the most advantageous financing for your situation is an integral part of the success formula of buying a home. After getting pre-approved but once you’ve found the home you’d like to pursue, one of your primary tasks is exploring different loan products to see which best fits your situation. This is the fork in the road where you’ll need to decide between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM). The following information will help you gain a better understanding of ARMs to help you decide whether they’re right for you.
What Is an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM)?
After your down payment, your mortgage will finance the remainder of your home purchase. Whereas fixed-rate mortgages allow you to lock in a specific interest rate and payment for the life of your loan, adjustable-rate mortgages’ interest rates will fluctuate over time, thus changing your loan payment. It’s typical for ARMs to begin with a low introductory interest rate, but once that first stage of the loan has passed, they will begin to shift up and down. ARMs generally have a cap that specifies the maximum rate that can occur for that loan.
Let’s say you secure an adjustable-rate mortgage with 30-year terms, the first five of which are at a fixed rate. When the variable interest portion of the loan kicks in, your mortgage’s fluctuations will be measured against an index. If the index is higher than when you secured the loan, your rate and loan payment will go up—and vice versa. How often your ARM rates change depends on your agreement with your lender. Talk to your mortgage broker to learn more about the characteristics of adjustable-rate mortgages.
Pros and Cons of an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM)
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Different Types of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs)
Hybrid ARM: As outlined above, a hybrid ARM begins with a fixed-rate introductory period followed by an adjustable-rate period. Typically, a hybrid ARM’s fixed-rate period lasts anywhere between three to 10 years, and its rates adjust at an agreed-upon frequency during the adjustable-rate period, such as once every six months or once a year.
Interest-Only ARM: With an interest-only ARM, you pay just the interest on the loan for a specified introductory period, then the principal payments kick in on top. The longer the introductory period, the higher your payments will be when the delayed principal payments enter the equation.
Payment-Option ARM: Not all states allow these loan products because they can get home buyers into hot water quickly if rates increase. They include flexibility to choose your monthly payments with a payment-option ARM, including interest-only payments and minimum payments that don’t cover interest.
Home Monthly Payment Calculator
To get an idea of how your mortgage payment will fit into your budget, use our free Home Monthly Payment Calculator by clicking the button below. With current rates based on national averages and customizable mortgage terms, you can experiment with different values to get an estimate of your monthly payment for any listing price.
Adapted from an article that originally appeared on the Windermere blog September 28, 2022. Written by: Sandy Dodge.
© Copyright 2022, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island.
How’s the Market? Q3 2022 Real Estate Review
While still considered a seller’s market, our July-September home sale activity signaled the return of some much-needed balance. Seattle and Eastside home prices still posted year-over-year gains in Q3, but rising interest rates markedly slowed the pace of both listings and sales. Houses also stayed on the market longer than we saw during the frenzy earlier this year—the average Seattle home took 17 days to sell, while Eastside homes averaged 25 days to sell. Buyers have a great opportunity to negotiate better terms now with an eye out to refinance when interest rates come down in the future.
Click or scroll down to find your area report:
Seattle | Eastside | Mercer Island | Condos | Waterfront
SEATTLE
There is a lot of good news in Seattle these days: Progress is being made in taking back downtown, the West Seattle Bridge is open AND real estate prices are UP year over year.
Transaction volume is down 35% across the city, which we can likely attribute to the volatility in interest rates, but listing volume is also down 10%. This is comforting! Supply and demand rules the market, and the last thing this balancing market needs is more inventory. We think this drop in seller enthusiasm is likely caused by the golden handcuffs of their historically low interest rates and refinance boom: even if your home isn’t meeting your needs these days, that 2.75% interest rate might be hard to give up.
Seattle’s average list/sold price ratio is 97%. This means if you listed your home for $1,000,000 you could expect to sell for $970,000 in Q3 of this year. Compare this with 82% on the Eastside. Seattle home sellers are more realistic and less affected by the price bloat of the last several years. We didn’t boom as hard, and we may not feel the impacts of a market balance as sharply either.
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
EASTSIDE
While we’re finally seeing the numbers reflect what the market has been feeling since May, it’s not as dire as one might think. Sales volume has slowed 38% year over year (based on total transaction count). However, new listings are also down (3%) which means the market reaching its peak has not sparked a sell off. This should keep our new normal buzzing along at pace similar to 2018 and 2019. Great homes that are priced right will sell—21% of homes sold above asking price and 40% of homes sold in the first 10 days.
Median list price is down 6% while median sales price is down 14.5%, which means homeowners looking to sell on the Eastside now have some data points to help them with realistic expectations of how to find the market. Average days on market is 25, which is higher than it’s been since Q1 of 2020! This is still slightly under the 6-year average. Don’t be tempted to think that there is something wrong with a home just because it has been on the market for a month; there are a lot of quality homes ready for their new owners.
The news of the day is interest rates. Heavy volatility in the markets and the administration’s drive to stem inflation have caused many buyers to pull out of the market. If you’re thinking you’ll wait for lower rates AND lower prices, you might be dreaming—if rates come down next year as predicted it will likely spur activity on. Our best advice: THIS is the market you’ve been waiting for. As a buyer you have choice, time and negotiating power for the first time since 2018. Capitalize! Then, refinance later.
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
MERCER ISLAND
Given the broader local news, we might expect doom and gloom from Q3 stats—this expert sees lots of opportunity and much needed stabilization after the crazy COVID boom. While median prices have fallen 1% year over year, the average price per square foot is actually UP. What does this mean? Comparing a median with an average is always a little tricky, but this likely points to a slowdown in the sale of larger homes.
To me, the better signs of market predictability are the months supply of inventory for the quarter (about 6 weeks for both condos and single family) and the average days on market (18 for sf and 57 for condo). These are all relatively healthy benchmarks, even though they’re markedly higher than in previous quarters. This is what’s causing media to report doom and gloom: inventory is up sharply (there was ONE active listing at the end of Q4 2021 vs 44 at the end of Q3 2022) and pending sales are down (57 vs. 94 last year in the same time period). When you compare our current numbers to any time period outside of the last two years, we’re faring very well!
The news of the day is interest rates. Heavy volatility in the markets and the administration’s drive to stem inflation have caused many buyers to pull out of the market. If you’re thinking you’ll wait for lower rates AND lower prices, you might be dreaming—if rates come down next year as predicted it will likely spur activity on. Our best advice: THIS is the market you’ve been waiting for. As a buyer you have choice, time and negotiating power for the first time since 2018. Capitalize! Then, refinance later.
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
CONDOS – SEATTLE & EASTSIDE
Condos remain the tortoise as opposed to the hare like residential markets of 2020-early 2022. Slow and steady will definitely win this race as the affordability of homeownership shrinks with rising interest rates. Looking at combined condo data (Eastside + Seattle), months supply of inventory is down to about 6 weeks from 2 months last quarter. Low months supply of inventory and low cumulative days on market (23) are two of the leading indicators of market health, and both are as low or lower as they’ve been in the recent past.
Condo prices are also holding strong with no change to the average $ per square foot in Seattle and an overall 5% rise in median sale price year over year. The Eastside tells an even slightly better story: a 9% rise in $ per square foot and a 6% rise in median sale price despite a 41% year-over-year drop in the number of transactions.
Keep rooting for the tortoise. This is a necessary niche in our marketplace. The first rung on the property ladder is condos again for the first time in a long time, and we really hope our Gen Z and Millennial buyers take the leap!
Check out area-by-area details the full condo report.
WATERFRONT
The most affordable place to buy waterfront this quarter was Beach Dr in West Seattle at a closed sale price of $1,800,000 for 22’ of waterfront on an 11,000 sq. ft. lot. The largest piece of shoreline overall was 172 feet in Medina on Lake Washington, which commanded a sales price of $17,800,000.
This brief overview of the entire Seattle-Eastside private waterfront market, including Mercer Island and Lake Sammamish, illustrates the trends occurring in our region over time. This data is interesting and insightful but cannot replace an in-depth waterfront analysis provided by a savvy broker with years of local waterfront experience.
We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.
© Copyright 2022, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island. Information and statistics derived from Northwest Multiple Listing Service and deemed accurate but not guaranteed.
